Labour reverses put down to impact of war and mid-term unpopularity...
Conservatives make good progress in their former strong holds...Lib Dems
make gains from both parties
Overview - English councils
It was a night of modest success and failure for the major parties in
the local elections. Facing its biggest test since the general election,
almost 12,000 council seats were contested, Labour suffered losses but fewer
than would be expected in mid term.
The Conservatives were the major beneficiaries of Labour losses, although
their successes were contained to shire district strongholds rather than
major urban areas. They will be disappointed by the resignation of shadow
cabinet member and Member of Parliament for Reigate, Crispin Blunt, minutes
after the polls closed.
For the Lib Dems there were some gains, although not as dramatic as in
some previous elections although they did achieve the highest share of the
national vote ever.
One of the major results of the night was a series of gains by the BNP.
These gains saw progress beyond the Lancashire cotton towns and into parts
of the Home Counties.
Major party's share of the vote (*after 284 councils declared)
Share of the vote:
Conservative: 34%
Labour: 31%
Lib Dem: 30%
The Results
From the Labour view point...
Labour will be disappointed to have lost over 700 seats, although not
entirely surprised. Mid term polls always hit the party of government. The
war in Iraq appears to have had some impact, particularly in areas with large
ethnic communities.
Labour will be relieved that they have stopped the major erosion of their
support in the major cities although will be saddened to have lost control
of Birmingham City Council. The main problem for Labour was motivating activists,
many of whom did not work for the party this time as protest against the
war.
Analysis: Tony Blair will not lose too much sleep over the results, although
he will want to encourage his campaigners to forget the war and get back
to work.
From the Conservative view point...
Iain Duncan-Smith and his team will be very pleased with over 500 gains.
although the celebrations will have tempered by the resignation of Crispin
Blunt. The Tories will also be concerned that most of their gains came from
traditional rural districts where they have lost out in recent years. They
failed to make much impression in the major cities where they need to do
well to stage a comeback at the next general election.
Analysis: The Tories will be furious that the local elections success
has been over shadowed by Crispin Blunt's resignation. However, Iain Duncan
Smith certainly lives to fight another day.
From the Liberal Democrat view point...
The Lib Dems will be very disappointed that their remarkable share of
the vote (almost equaling both Labour and Conservative) did not translate
into more seats gained. The Lib Dems opposition to the war in Iraq appears
to have paid off in many of the Midland local authorities.
Analysis: Lib Dems will feel that Charles Kennedy's stand on Iraq has
produced some political benefits. They remain the only challenger to Labour
in the big cities and in many areas the only challenger to the Conservatives
in rural districts.
Key quotes
'If we are...serious about regaining power, our leader has
to be replaced...we are making no real progress.'
Crispin Blunt MP, former shadow cabinet member
'These elections were decided by local people on local issues.
But the national picture is much the same - Labour are failing to provide
people with the services they need and deserve, and are making them pay
higher and higher taxes.
'We look forward to the opportunity when we can go out to the electorate and
fight a General Election because more people are realising that it's the
Conservatives who can make their lives better.'
Teresa May, Chairman, Conservative party
'Any party facing mid elections will lose seats. I am pleased
that we did so well.'
John Prescott
'We have achieved the highest level of support for the Lib
Dems ever in a local election. I am delighted.'
Charles Kennedy
'The Tories failed to do as well as William Hague managed
in 1999'
John Reid
Fact File
· The following types of local authority went to the polls
yesterday: 36 Metropolitan boroughs, 27 unitary councils electing the whole
council, 13 unitary authorities electing by thirds, 150 district councils
electing the whole council and 82 district council selecting by thirds.
· Over 40,000,000 people were entitled to vote in yesterday's
elections.
· Just over 30% of those registered to vote did so. A similar
figure to 2000 and 2002.
· 11,700 council seats were fought for yesterday.
· 62 councils introduced new ways of voting including telephone
texting and via the internet.
Turnout
Turnout was again low. The average turnout across England was 30% although
the figure was considerably lower in many areas. A number of local authorities
introduced innovative ways of encouraging voting. The most successful appears
to full post ballots of complete councils. Where this happened turnout increased
by approx. 10%.
Minor parties and single interest groups
The big news for small parties was the continued, relative, success of
the BNP. The held seats they gained at recent by-elections and increased
their position on a number of councils. Again, it would appear that they
have picked up votes from traditional Labour voters although they did win
seats in Conservative areas.
Scotland
The Labour-Lib Dem administration that has run the Scottish parliament
will continue to do so following elections to the Scottish parliament. In
both these and the Scottish council elections, the traditional domination
of Scotland by Labour continued although there was some cheer for the Greens
and Scottish Socialist Party. This success for the small parties is due to
the loss of support for the major parties and a frustration that devolution
has failed to deliver on domestic issues.
Wales
Wales is one area where Labour will be very pleased. The shock of Welsh
Nationalist success four years ago in some of their heartland South Wales
seats produced a significantly more energetic Labour campaign that will give
them an overall majority in the Welsh Assembly.
Overall Analysis
1. These results underline increasing unease about the performance of
the government in mid term, although this is not unusual.
2. It will give the Tories some hope although their leadership troubles
continue.
3. For the Lib Dems, they enjoyed an increased share in the popular vote
but failed to turn it into more seats and councils.
4. The continuing debate about how to deal with the BNP will go on.
Any pre-ordered election analysis will be with you shortly by fax. It
is still not to late to order, with 32 councils changing control across
the country if you want more in-depth analysis into specific councils please
contact Ian Thorn on 0118 959 1211 or reply to this email.
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